On can certainly attest that for the past 50 years the beer industry has been an industry of consolidation. Beginning with Philip Morris’ acquisition of the Miller Brewing Co. it seems more breweries are selling. Once the top tier started, it facilitated consolidation at the middle tier, and the movement continues today.
Philip Morris-Miller notwithstanding, take a look at some of the other consolidations and identify the ones that have been even partly successful. Stroh/Schlitz? Nope! All the G. Heileman breweries under their umbrella? Nope, that one ended in the US bankruptcy courts. Pabst? Look what they ended up with and how many times have they been sold? In all fairness, the Pabst brand has, in recent years, seen some revival, but not enough to place them at the level Pabst enjoyed in the 1960s.
The consolidation at the middle tier has been much more successful in terms of survival. Even in this tier, the industry is seeing new, small craft distributors becoming a factor, as the consolidation by the wholesalers has opened the door for this model.
We have watched how InBev’s acquisition of AB, and the JV acquisition of SABMiller and Molson Coors affected the sales of those breweries. With Molson Coors now independent of SABMiller, just how MC does in the future will soon be known. We all, however, know what ABI’s course of action.
One could say that the recent U.S. election, combined with all of the rhetoric and promises given by the various politicians, may be similar to the rhetoric we see from the ABI leadership. It is clear that 10 years after InBev’s take-over of AB, share growth and organic volume growth is not a reality. For ABI to survive, it must continue to acquire more brands and more companies.
ABI’s recent announcement of their acquisition of the highly successful brewery, Karbach of Houston, has come right on the heels of closing the SABMiller deal. This again brings up this question: how many times does ABI make commitments, but proceeds to do exactly what they want to do?
Does anyone believe that this Karbach deal was just recently made? This deal had to have been negotiated and agreed upon long before the announcement date. The agreement, however, was kept quiet so both the industry and the DOJ would not object. Now with the election over, and the change in government, what better time to announce such a deal? Anticipate the deal to close before the end of the year, if not sooner. With the Obama administration on the way out, and the Trump administration incoming, there should be no expectation of DOJ objections.
Once again, Brito and his ABI team have played their cards with a winning hand. Karbach is one of the craft industries incredible success stories. Karbach might make 80K bbls. this year in only its fifth year in business. Yet they only sell in Texas! Now, it will be in ABI’s portfolio.
ABI has shown, time and again, it will do what it needs to do to win. It will not change, no matter what.
“Winning isn’t everything, but wanted it is.”
Arnold Palmer
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