The opportunity is often lost by deliberating.

As expected, ABInBev has done the homework necessary to buy SABMiller.  The old truism has again comes to light:  everything is for sale if the price is right.  Majority owners of SABMiller, including Altria, stand to substantially benefit by selling to ABI, just as the shareholders of AB profited in 2008 when purchased by InBev.  Because of this purchase price, the deal will go through, and the interesting part is yet to come.

The complexity of this deal, soft drink bottlers notwithstanding, could present some very attractive opportunities for other beer companies.  Those who will take advantage of such situations, have positioned themselves as alternatives to just such a set of circumstances.

When AB was bought out, NAB was enhanced by the acquisition of Labatt’s from InBev to ensure justice department approval.  It is common knowledge that when ABInBev bought Modelo, Constellation ended up owning not only Modelo in the US, but also a world class brewery in Mexico.  The ongoing results were dramatic for Constellation.

Given the number of recent, and I mean recent, changes in ownership of craft breweries across the nation, one needs a scorecard to keep the multiple transactions straight.  Could any of these play out in the possible anti-trust fallout from the ABI-SABMiller deal?

Constellation Brands’ senior management and their commitment allowed the company to first take advantage of acquiring Gambrinus’ territory for Modelo. Based on that commitment, when ABI bought Modelo, Constellation acquired Modelo for the U.S.  Now they own Modelo and a Modelo brewery.

Constellation could be one of the players in this possible diversification of brands from ABI/SABMiller deal.  Whereas other potential players will miss the boat based on past decisions which put them in an unfavorable position to take advantage of the situation.  For example, Carlsberg, which pulled out of the US as a player some years ago, would have been one with the resources and size to purchase some of these brands.  Not now.  There are others who did the same.

Outside of Constellation, perhaps NAB will once again take the plunge.  They could be a player but the real question might be, will others like Boston Beers take action?  What about a Sierra Nevada?  Any crafts or importers with the resources and national distribution could pick up one or several of the smaller, but unique brands that might be sold off by ABI or MillerCoors.

The one unknown is how Heineken will position itself as all of this unfolds.  At first glance, one expects little to nothing in Heineken for them to act. Rest assured, however, they are analyzing every move being made.  Just like a chess game, they could jump in if things looked enticing.

Regardless of the results, and it will take at least until 2017 for the smoke to clear, there will be winners and there will be losers, but the bottom line is that the landscape of the beer world will change dramatically.  For many, the opportunity is often lost by deliberating.